Expert doesn’t expect Tadej Pogacar to stand on the podium of Paris-Roubaix: “If it rains, the wet pavé specialists have an advantage”

Expert doesn’t expect Tadej Pogacar to stand on the podium of Paris-Roubaix: “If it rains, the wet pavé specialists have an advantage”

**Expert Doubts Pogacar’s Podium Prospects at Paris-Roubaix: “If It Rains, the Wet Pavé Specialists Have an Advantage”**

As Tadej Pogačar prepares to make his much-anticipated debut at Paris-Roubaix, not everyone in the cycling world is convinced the Slovenian superstar will light up the cobbles the same way he dominates mountain stages and Grand Tours. While his palmarès continues to grow with astonishing range — from Monument wins to Tour de France triumphs — one expert believes Roubaix may prove a bridge too far, especially if the weather turns.

“If it rains, the wet pavé specialists have a clear advantage,” the expert explained. “Pogačar is a phenomenal rider, but Paris-Roubaix is a race that takes years to understand. Wet cobbles are treacherous, unpredictable, and they favor riders with specific experience and technical instincts born from repeated exposure.”

Pogačar’s dominance in races like Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Tour of Flanders, and Strade Bianche has proven that he can handle tough terrain and high-pressure moments. His climbing and time trialing are world-class, and he’s shown an ability to thrive in chaotic conditions. However, Paris-Roubaix is a beast of a different kind — one where power alone isn’t enough.

“He’s got the engine, no doubt,” the expert added, “but this is not a race you can finesse your way through. You need to read the cobbles, time your efforts, manage mechanicals, and understand how the race flows over 250 kilometers of punishment. One puncture, one slip in a muddy sector, and your day can unravel in seconds.”

Roubaix’s famed sectors, such as the Arenberg Forest and Carrefour de l’Arbre, are notorious for wrecking even the best-laid strategies. And when rain is added to the equation, they become even more treacherous, turning the hard stones into slick traps that require specialized skill to navigate safely.

Van der Poel, Philipsen, and other proven cobbled riders have spent years mastering these roads. Many began riding the pavé as juniors and learned how to adjust body position, tire pressure, and line choice almost instinctively. That sort of nuance is nearly impossible to replicate on a debut.

Still, Pogačar’s entry has already generated buzz and added a new layer of intrigue to the event. He’s not expected to be a passive participant — he rarely is — and he could still shape the race by forcing selections or chasing breaks. But whether he can sustain that effort all the way to a podium finish in the Roubaix Velodrome is where doubt creeps in.

“Of course, he could surprise us,” the expert concluded. “He’s one of the greatest riders of his generation. But on wet cobbles, against hardened specialists who’ve lived and breathed Roubaix, it’s hard to see him cracking the top three. Not this year.”

As the peloton braces for what could be a wet and wild edition of the “Hell of the North,” the pressure is on. And while Tadej Pogačar never backs down from a challenge, Paris-Roubaix might just be his most unforgiving test yet.