The Alabama Crimson Tide enters the 2026 season facing a major question: Can Kalen DeBoer get Alabama back into the College Football Playoff? The answer is certainly yes, but the path looks considerably more difficult than it did a year ago.
Alabama reached the 2025-26 College Football Playoff as a No. 9 seed and advanced to the quarterfinals before suffering a 38-3 loss to Indiana. That experience gives the Crimson Tide valuable postseason experience, but it also highlighted how much work remains before Alabama can realistically challenge for a national championship.
The biggest concern entering 2026 is roster turnover. Alabama must replace quarterback Ty Simpson, two of its top three receivers, four starting offensive linemen and six defensive starters. PFF consequently rated Alabama’s chances of returning to the playoff as “low” earlier this year.
Quarterback will be the most closely watched position. Keelon Russell and Austin Mack are competing to replace Simpson. Whoever wins the job will have enormous responsibility, particularly because Alabama is rebuilding much of its offensive line. If the new quarterback can protect the football and consistently make plays in critical SEC games, the Tide’s playoff chances improve dramatically.
There are reasons for optimism, however. Alabama remains one of the most talented programs in the country, and the transfer portal has helped DeBoer address several roster weaknesses. The defense should also have enough athleticism to keep Alabama competitive against elite opponents.
The expanded playoff format provides another reason for optimism. The College Football Playoff confirmed that the 12-team format will remain in place for the 2026-27 season, with conference champions and the highest-ranked teams competing for playoff positions. That means Alabama does not necessarily need to win the SEC to qualify.
Still, the SEC could be the biggest obstacle. Alabama will face several teams capable of competing for playoff positions, meaning a couple of losses could put the Tide in a difficult position. Early national projections have reflected that uncertainty. NCAA.com’s January rankings placed Alabama at No. 17, while Saturday Down South later included the Crimson Tide at No. 10 in an early 2026 playoff projection.
My prediction: Alabama has a realistic chance to make the CFP, but it is not a guarantee. If Russell or Mack provides steady quarterback play and the rebuilt offensive line comes together quickly, an 10-2 or 11-1 regular season is possible. That would almost certainly put Alabama in the playoff conversation.
If the offense struggles early, however, Alabama could fall into the 8-4 or 9-3 range, making qualification much less certain.
Ultimately, I would lean toward Alabama making the 2026 College Football Playoff, but probably as a lower seed rather than one of the four teams receiving a first-round bye. The talent is still there. The question is whether the new pieces can come together quickly enough in a brutally competitive SEC.
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